NASB  Newsletter
November 2000

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Member of AIB (The Association for International Broadcasting)
Associate Member of DRM (Digital Radio Mondiale)
Summaries of some of the 2000 Annual Meeting presentations follow:
Digital Radio Mondiale, DRM
Chris Gill
Considerable uncertainty exists as to which emerging technologies are likely to succeed for a sustained period.  We can be certain of some things as regards the future of broadcasting:  the choice of new technologies will be even greater in the future than it is today; in most markets, the listener will be increasingly tempted by improved audio quality; however good the content, the listener will also be looking for choice; of all the new technologies offered, some will not succeed.  The challenge facing international broadcasters is making the right choice.  In the past, it was possible to compete (mostly with mediumwave and shortwave) on the basis of the quality of the content of a broadcast, with audio quality being a secondary issue.  In the future, expectations will be for a higher level of audio quality.
With the proliferation of outlets for programs such as FM, cable, the Internet, and satellite, we must form a reasonably accurate view of how our listeners will access our "content" in the future.  Many believe that satellite and the Internet will be the major "content" providers of the future.  With the wide choice of "content" available, broadcasting is moving more and more into narrowcasting, with content tailored to specific interests.  The Internet, in particular, offers the possibility for self-assembled, on-demand personalized content. However, radio will continue to be a significant means of getting audio to the listener for many years to come.  However much the choices may expand, whatever the range of new technologies available, there will still be many occasions during the day when we can't look at a screen, or sit down at the computer, or use the Internet types of technology.  Radio still fills an important gap.
Mike Cronk (of the BBC and DRM) suggests that radio of the future should meet these criteria:  easy operation for the listener; simple designations for different "channels"; possess good audio quality with good dynamic range; economical transmission requirement; the signal must cover a large land mass without reception being hampered by obstructions such as hills or buildings; fading and interference must be minimized; broadcasters should be able to control the "gateway"; maximize use of previous investments and minimize costs of required new investments; receivers shouldn't be much more expensive than present receivers; must be workable within present spectrum allocations.
In March 1998, a group of broadcasters, transmitter and receiver manufacturers, network operators, and research bodies signed a "Memorandum of Understanding" to develop a system with characteristics as described above.  Later that year a formal consortium agreement was completed, putting in place a body committed to the development of a digital standard for the AM bands below 30 MHz.  Digital Radio Mondiale (DRM) was established.
The DRM Technical Committee, working in a very tight time frame, developed a standard sufficiently robust to submit to the ITU.  Also, they conducted a series of propagation tests using five converted transmitters around the world. These tests were for the purpose of proving that the theory would work out in practice.  In future months, the DRM will be encouraging adoption of the proposed standard, as well as continuing the more detailed development work, and testing the system.
Estimates from the transmitter industry indicate that modern transmitters could be converted to digital at a cost of about $100,000 per transmitter.
They aim to have digital receivers in the marketplace in late 2001 or early 2002.  One of DRM's goals is that a receiver bought anywhere in the world will work anywhere in the world.  For this to succeed, it is important that a standard emerges from the work of the ITU that meets the needs of the broadcasting industry around the world.  As a result, DRM has started to work with USADR   to promote the adoption of a global standard.  This will reduce the cost of new receivers and make the product more attractive to the consumer.
Gill's research indicates that there are an estimated 2.5 billion receivers in the world, of which 60% are estimated to have shortwave on them.  In the ITU listings, there are 169 organizations using HF on a wide scale, broadcasting from 593 locations around the world.
Although it may not be possible to arrive at a single world-wide standard for digital broadcasting, it is hoped that there will be sufficient coordination that a single receiver will be capable of receiving any of the systems that get into actual use.
One very possible development of the near future is a single portable device that will provide music, news, commentary, e-mail, web-access, video, and such, all via digital transmission.  If broadcasters are not fully on digital platforms, they may not be part of this delivery system.  DRM is an opportunity for broadcasters to achieve that digital presence.

Audience Research for Shortwave Broadcasters
By Graham Mytton
Why Research Matters
All successful businesses need to know how well they are performing. They need information on their customers. Doing this in broadcasting is not at all easy. Radio and TV broadcasting is a rather special kind of business activity. It is unusual because when a broadcast reaches a person, no money changes hands. No physical object is either collected or handed over.  Nothing happens that actually tells you for sure how many customers there were.  If you are selling soft drinks, you can tell very quickly how you are doing. You can count the sales you have made.
But this kind of consumer information is not so easy to obtain in broadcasting. In the field of audience research we see the development of two specialised methodologies - personal diaries and electronic meters, designed to measure audience behaviour.  But these techniques are mainly used to measure audiences for domestic radio and TV in national, regional and local markets. Most broadcasters in developed countries have up-to-date and timely data on their audiences. They know their popular programmes.   They know their reach, share and cumulative audiences. These data are used as the currency for buying and selling advertising time and space. They are also an essential part of the broadcasting business to aid scheduling and programme making decisions.
What of international radio broadcasting? Are the same research techniques available and appropriate? Can we know, with the same level of detail, who is listening to what and when and how often? Can we know what attracts our listeners and how they make their choices?
What Existing Research Tells Us
In my old department at the BBC we commissioned surveys in countries in all parts of the world. From these we were able to say what kinds of people the listeners are, what they like, when they listen, what kinds of radio sets they use, what reception is like and how their behaviour changes over time.  However, we were never able to say how many people listened to a particular programme. Our picture of the international audience for the BBC was painstakingly built up from data from separate surveys in several countries, carried out over several years.
International radio audiences are likely to be large where certain conditions prevail. These include the absence of choice in countries where the media are not free from various kinds of government restraint. Another factor can be high levels of political tension when demand for reliable news from outside the country concerned can lead many people to tune to foreign stations on shortwave.
Let us look at one example -- Nigeria in 1998, before the return to democracy.  The top three broadcasters -- BBC, Voice of America and Deutsche Welle -- had substantial audiences at that time. A sample of over 3,000 was selected to represent the Nigerian adult (15+) population of about 60 million. The BBC audience was estimated to be around 17 million and that of the VOA about 14 million.
Few shortwave broadcasters gain audiences large enough to measure on normal, general population audience surveys. The BBC, VOA, DW, RFI and some other broadcasters do achieve audiences in some countries that are easily measurable and some of these are very large, at times and in some countries, as large as domestic radio stations. This was the case in Nigeria and is also the case in many other countries, mostly in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and in areas of present conflict and tension,like Albania and the former Yugoslavia.
Generally speaking, levels of listening are low or very low in the more developed countries and higher in the less developed ones. And there is generally a higher level of shortwave use in countries where shortwave is used for domestic broadcasting. This is the case in nearly all African countries.
Shortwave sets are common throughout Africa. This is because all national broadcasters in Africa have used shortwave as their main means of national transmission. This is now changing and there may now be a decline in shortwave access. This will probably apply to the cheaper sets, while higher priced and more sophisticated equipment will probably continue to have shortwave bands. The same is true of India, although this may now also change as FM spreads. In other parts of Asia, radio itself has gone into decline in many countries. However, even though access to shortwave may not be very high, this does not appear to affect shortwave use as much as might be expected. Access is very low in Vietnam and this probably depresses shortwave use figures. Even so, audiences to foreign radio are not insignificant there. Pakistan data are striking in that even though only a minority of radio households has shortwave capable radio sets, the proportion listening to foreign stations is high.
There is a surprising range of levels of shortwave access in countries of the former Soviet Union. It needs to be remembered also that in some former USSR countries, most people do not have wireless sets, a legacy of the fact that the Soviet authorities encouraged the use of cable (tochka) radio, presumably to block out western radio as far as possible.
In Europe, shortwave access is quite high, especially in countries where levels of listening to foreign radio were formerly quite high. But even in Western Europe, many people may have at least one shortwave radio set. In many cases, however, the waveband may not be used.  In the Americas, shortwave access is generally low, although in countries like Peru where shortwave has been used for domestic broadcasting, access is higher. 
What audiences can shortwave broadcasters expect to reach? For most stations, the numbers are scattered and small. You may have audiences of less than 0.1%.  But this does not mean an insignificant achievement necessarily.  Just let us suppose that a shortwave international broadcaster reaches listeners in many countries but that in none of these is the audience achieved large enough to measure by the usual general population surveys. If your average reach was, let us say, one person in 10,000 - that is 0.01%. On a global scale that is a lot of people - about 350,000 of them. The problem is that we can never afford the scale and number of surveys that would be necessary to prove it.
 So is the situation hopeless? What can we do practically to learn about users of shortwave and listeners to international shortwave radio programmes? What can be done to help the broadcasters understand and know their audiences better?
Mail Surveys  - This can be used to generate addresses on a database that can be used over time to learn about those who write, track changes in what they like and listen to, learn about who they are and invite regular feedback and other useful knowledge. We know from research that responses from listeners can give an accurate picture of reception conditions. They can also tell us something valuable about an important section of the audience - the committed and keen listeners. What is more, the people who respond to you by writing may be precisely the kinds of people you wish to reach.
On-Air Surveys - If you want some more general information about those listening and you wish to stimulate response for research purposes, you can actually ask questions over the air. These can be very good value in terms of the information gleaned. The on-air appeal can attract people to write who normally would not. You can explain the value of and importance attached to feedback. Specific questions can be asked.
Special Surveys Among Target Populations -

Instead of general surveys of whole adult populations, surveys can be specially targeted to those people who the stations wish to reach. If you are aiming to reach shortwave hobbyists, just survey them. If you want to reach Poles living abroad, the same applies. If your main objective is to reach the better-educated listener, commission research just among a sample of them.
Internet Research - This is a growing area for research and one from which shortwave broadcasters may learn. A good deal of Internet-based research is very like the on-air surveys mentioned earlier. Users are asked to respond.  As these methods are developed by the fastest growing area in the market research business, there may be lessons to learn for shortwave broadcasting research.
Research Through Existing Shared and Other Surveys - Lastly it should not be forgotten that much useful research continues to be done among general populations by or for the major international broadcasters. The BBC, the VOA, RFI and other major broadcasters commission many surveys each year.  These can serve two functions for the smaller broadcasters. They can provide data on shortwave access, shortwave use, and many other relevant data. Having a general picture of the amount that shortwave is used can be a guide to the strength of the medium.

NASB Members
Adventist World Radio
Assemblies of Yahweh
Family Radio Network
Far East Broadcasting Company
Herald Broadcasting Syndicate
High Adventure Ministries
LeSea Broadcasting Corporation
Radio Miami International
Trans World Radio
World Christian Broadcasting
World Wide Catholic Radio

NASB Associate Members
Antenna Products
Continental Electronics Corporation
George Jacobs and Associates
HCJB World Radio
Technology for Communications Int.
Thomcast, Inc.


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